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Fighter form and matchup evidence
After getting stopped by Chris Weidman at UFC on FOX 25, Kelvin Gastelum has won two straight fights. He knocked out Michael Bisping in spectacular fashion at UFC Fight Night 122 and then won a split decision over Ronaldo Souza at UFC 224. The Arizona native has ten wins via stoppage in fifteen career wins. The twenty-seven year has sneaky power and incredible accuracy making him a difficult match-up for anyone.
Where the matchup differences appeared
That is, with the exception of Gustafsson. All three judges scored their first fight in favor of Jones, but the long-time champion was shockingly only able to secure 1-of-11 takedown attempts.
Fight odds across the main markets
The case for Alexander Gustafsson in UFC 232 predictions rested on his size, footwork, takedown defence and striking. He had previously taken Jones down and landed more strikes on Jones than any earlier UFC opponent cited in the analysis, giving him a credible path to a close decision win. After reviewing ufc 232 predictions, ufc 301 predictions offers another useful angle on the same subject.
Comparing the fighters and market lines
Alexander Gustafsson title fight. So he's probably fresher going into the rematch than he otherwise would be, and he has a great incentive. He said he didn't train the first time around, but has worked hard in this go-round.
Alexander Gustafsson title fight. According to Fight Metric, Jones absorbed just 115 strikes in those bouts, an average of 12.8 strikes a fight. In those nine bouts, Jones landed 37.9 strikes a fight. Against Gustafsson, he landed 134 and took 110. Counting the Gustafsson fight, Jones has absorbed 110, 53, 58, 57 and 58 strikes in his five fights since. That's an average of 67.2 strikes.
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